Option Flow: Gold Leads, BTC Lurks

In this week’s edition of Option Flows, Tony Stewart is commenting on the recent market movements.

Bitcoin grasping gold’s tailwind vs macro risk.

Strong upside momentum via Spot +ETF inflows has not persuasively encouraged fresh material Call buying, but aggressive opening Put selling across 76-80k Strikes does appear to be setting a comfortable base, taking in premium+IV.

2) Bitcoin following Gold? Fresh Call buying is muted.

May 100ks bought but funded by selling Jun 110ks.

Other Blue lines short-term low premium Calls hoping for an upside shock (or covering slide risk). But Apr76+78k, May+June 80k Puts sold in chunks, forming a confident base.

3) Skew has been retracing back to flat, with the Apr+May+Jun 76-80k sales hitting the Puts, and a little demand in upside Calls coming back, there is now a fractional +ve Call skew across all months.

4) Dvol has round-tripped Liberation Day, after surging early in the month, consolidating then plunging at the end of last week into sellers of Apr Gamma, May+Jun Vega.

VIX is still elevated at 35%. Now that BTC showing strength contra-macro, the Jun 80k Puts +Dvol absorbed well.

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