Option Flow: Santa Call Spread Season

In this week’s edition of Option Flows, Tony Stewart is commenting on the recent market movements.

After a 35% plunge from 126k, Put longs TPd vs 81-82k while still keeping cautious protection v long Spot BTC with 80-85k Strikes.

But the dominant trade of the week was a bullish EoY Dec 100-106-112-118k Call Condor initially 12k, ~$6.5m premium, looking for a Santa rally.

Initially buying started v 865xx, and up to 88k for the original 12k blocks, with follow-on copycat and buybacks adding 2.5k volume in the same strategy.

If running to expiry, the buyer targets 100k+ by Dec26, with an ideal final settle between 106-112k, with 10:1 max payoff.

Hidden beneath the Call condor volume were persistent and familiar Call over-writers on the Dec100k and Jan 100-105k Calls.

These and the general relaxation of downside fear have dampened IVs, but with RV still performing and 2-way Put (+spread) action, much is inconclusive.

See original post on X here.