Episode 91: Will The Last FOMC of 2025 Trigger A Santa Rally In Crypto

Bitcoin chops sideways into the final FOMC of 2025 – 25 bps cut is priced to perfection, but the real game is the guidance: will Powell hint at aggressive 2026 cuts and, crucially, confirm front-end liquidity ops (“not-QE QE”) to ease funding stress?

Imran and David debate the Bank of Japan headache (hiking into stagflation while forced to buy bonds = yen likely the escape valve) and why dollar-yen ripping to 200+ could actually be bullish for hard assets long-term. Today’s special guest was James Check, co-founder of CheckonChain discussing what he’s seeing from the on-chain and options world to guide his views into 2026.

The following topics is covered:

00:00 – Introduction 01:10 – FOMC Preview & 25bp Cut Expectations 04:06 – Funding Stress & Front-End Money Market Rates 08:13 – Dollar/Yen Moves & Global Macro Impact on Crypto 14:31 – Treasury Supply, Liquidity Programs & BTC Outlook 16:33 – Todays Special Guest: James Check 20:30 – On-Chain Data: Smart Money vs Dumb Money 24:50 – Options & Hedging 26:13 – Call Selling: Flows & Vol Suppression 32:09 – Trading Behavior: Covered Calls & Squeezes 38:09 – Bitcoin Positioning, Entry Levels & ETF’s Dynamics 41:20 – Options Gravity vs Spot: When Options Really Matter 48:34 – Leverage Washouts, Sell Pressure & Market Structure 53:24 – SKU Divergence & Option Market Signals 59:16 – Funding Markets, Front-End Stress & Possible Fed Intervention 01:06:11 – Closing Thougts & Christmas Episode

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Disclaimer: The content presented on Crypto Options Unplugged is not intended as investment advice. Always conduct your own research.