Altcoins Take the Spotlight as Vol Surfaces Normalize

Macro Backdrop

The Fed looks set to trim rates by 25 bps rather than 50, striking a balance that avoids spooking markets. Institutional demand remains the anchor, with BTC spot ETFs recording consistent inflows and ETH attracting steady interest despite regulatory hurdles. Even assets like XRP and SOL rallied after ETF delays, reinforcing the view that postponements are steps toward approval. Altcoins are driving momentum, drawing capital out of BTC’s consolidation and into higher-beta names. Overall, crypto feels steady, range-bound, and awaiting its next macro catalyst.

Implied vs. Realized Volatility – Low and Orderly

Realized vol collapsed last week, with BTC dropping into the low 20s and ETH below 40. While front- end vols remain sticky ahead of the FOMC, the rest of the curve drifted 2–3 vols lower. Carry has turned decisively positive, especially in ETH, as realized has rolled over but implied remains supported. Price action has been orderly, reinforcing the low-volatility regime.

Skew – Puts Fading, Calls Emerging

Skew curves bounced alongside the market, trimming put premiums. BTC front-end skew narrowed from -4 to -2, though puts still dominate. ETH’s skew shifted more evenly, with short-dated expiries holding slight put bias while long-dated structures lean toward calls – a sign of medium-term bullish positioning. Sentiment is tilting constructive as a rate cut is already priced in.

ETHBTC Pair – Spreads Signal ETH’s Long-Term Premium

The ETH/BTC vol spread is inflecting around October expiries, with front-end spreads touching 30 as BTC vols softened more sharply. Long-dated structures still show call premium for ETH, reflecting lower institutional hedging pressure and the asset’s less mature adoption profile.

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