In this week’s edition of Option Flows, Tony Stewart is commenting on the recent market movements.
Strong push higher into the BTC conference Trump speech.
Calls bought in 28th July and Aug 2nd expiry wished for the stars.
Trump only promised the moon.
MMs that had squeezed up the near-date Gamma >100% remarked it lower by 25% immediately, and watched the selling commence.
2) Trump’s promise not to sell US seized BTC fell short of a US strategic reserve that would acquire BTC.
Below is the manifestation of what happened during and in the aftermath of the speech, as holders of short-term exposure tried to unwind.
28th July lottery tickets expired.
3) Below shows the run-up of excitement, buying of optionality squeezing short-term Vol higher, and the subsequent purge.
Note mid-long term vol only fell slightly back.
There was very little movement of the large structural Call longs in Dec/Eoy positioning.
A degen blip only.
View Twitter thread.
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ex-MS Head of Trading desk /BTC Vol. Prop trading /Option Market forensics/ Alter Ego account Digital Asset arena. Tweets are my opinion, not financial advice.