In this week’s edition of Option Flows, Tony Stewart is commenting on latest surge in BTC price.
February 28
Astute buyer of BTC Mar25 45k Calls x1k+ yesterday vs 39k, IV 65-68%, at first looked premature as spot dipped to 37k.
But with IV firming 10%, his paper loss was limited and on the subsequent surge to 42k today was a 2x on Call premium, while others scrambled to cover shorts.
2) International community making strong stand vs Russian aggression, and BTC suddenly became in vogue causing a raft of liquidations in spot and short-covering of BTC Calls before month-end.
Skew fear softened, as Calls outstripped demand, particularly in 1-3week maturities.
3) This rampant spot move and Option dynamics kept Implied Vol firm.
As the Russian situation remains unsettled, IV sellers are dissuaded from counter-aggression and look for consolidation.
Other key metrics such as S&P and VIX also act in similar manner, strong rally, VIX 30%.
4) Term-structure remains in Backwardation as front-end gamma in play and market also cognizant of potential new-month Fund subscriptions.
Should the market take a breath, IV across the curve could relax, but also likely is that we see exposure moved out, and resulting Contango.
View Twitter thread.
March 3
BTC Options dominating ETH, as macro considerations, rumors of Russian reallocation lead momentum, forcing BTC >45k, note Call Strike discussed last thread. No indication of Option unwind.
Despite the trace to 43k, Option flow bullish: Apr 60k Calls + Jun 45-60k Call spread.
2) April 60k Calls bought aggressively on-screen 1k+.
Because of Russian concerns, Put Skew is still firm, which has softened Calls relatively.
These Apr 60k Calls are ~flat vol to ATM, so the buyer is opportunistically looking for these to likely outperform in a strong rally.
3) The Jun 45-60k Call spread x1k is more complex, as again the Skew is flat, so technically not an optimum buy, but buying Jun deltas when funding is low is sound.
Using a Call spread naturally reduces the cost of buying the 45k Call outright.
Seen Jun Call spread buyer before.
4) Term-structure dictated by flow as DOV 43k Call + a seller of Mar4 44k Calls hits the 1day Option, but buyer of Mar11 42k Calls, Mar 45k-50ks previously +Apr 60k Calls keep the front end firm, consistent with VIX metric >30%.
Conspicuous is May, oblivious to buying in Apr+Jun.
View Twitter thread.
AUTHOR(S)
ex-MS Head of Trading desk /BTC Vol. Prop trading /Option Market forensics/ Alter Ego account Digital Asset arena. Tweets are my opinion, not financial advice.