In this week’s edition of Option Flows, Tony Stewart is commenting on the recent market movements.
Bitcoin grasping gold’s tailwind vs macro risk.
Strong upside momentum via Spot +ETF inflows has not persuasively encouraged fresh material Call buying, but aggressive opening Put selling across 76-80k Strikes does appear to be setting a comfortable base, taking in premium+IV.
2) Bitcoin following Gold? Fresh Call buying is muted.
May 100ks bought but funded by selling Jun 110ks.
Other Blue lines short-term low premium Calls hoping for an upside shock (or covering slide risk). But Apr76+78k, May+June 80k Puts sold in chunks, forming a confident base.
3) Skew has been retracing back to flat, with the Apr+May+Jun 76-80k sales hitting the Puts, and a little demand in upside Calls coming back, there is now a fractional +ve Call skew across all months.
4) Dvol has round-tripped Liberation Day, after surging early in the month, consolidating then plunging at the end of last week into sellers of Apr Gamma, May+Jun Vega.
VIX is still elevated at 35%. Now that BTC showing strength contra-macro, the Jun 80k Puts +Dvol absorbed well.
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ex-MS Head of Trading desk /BTC Vol. Prop trading /Option Market forensics/ Alter Ego account Digital Asset arena. Tweets are my opinion, not financial advice.