“Watch the body, not the hands.”
If you’ve played sports like soccer, basketball, or tried your chances in a boxing ring, you’ve had coaches say things like “the hips tell the truth” or “read the shoulders – they’ll show the punch before it comes.”
In a week that should have been guided by macro jobs data, JPMorgan accepting crypto ETFs as collateral, and the crescendo of Circle’s sensational IPO yesterday, the regularly scheduled news program was completely derailed by the internet dumpster fire that occurred on Twitter (X).
If you missed it, the richest man in the world and the most powerful man in the world had a falling out yesterday of nuclear proportions. Insults were hurled, threats were made, and memes exploded.
Watching charts out of the side of my view while on a Zoom call, I probably had the same reaction many people did… “Is something happening in the news right now?”
Within an hour of the kerfuffle, bitcoin dropped from $106k to $104k, a polite 2%, and then quickly shed another $4000 points to the $100,300 level, giving everyone that rollercoaster feeling that you sort of hate but keeps you coming back.
I watched in disbelief… “These two guys arguing is more impactful than the Circle IPO?!”
For reference, Circle marketed at $27-$28 per share, listed at $31, traded intraday as high as $103.75, and closed at $83.23! It’s the most successful first day trading since Sono Group NV IPO’d in 2021, and gives Circle a fully diluted market cap of $22.1b.
Now, roughly 26 hours later, bitcoin has staged a full recovery to yesterday’s open price at $104,700, Circle is trading at new highs, and Elon is posting about rockets and Starlink.
There are endless news stories and data streams that investors have to sift through and interpret. Yesterday was the epitome of noise overpowering signal, and testing traders with nearly $1b in long liquidations. At Two Prime, we see it as a reminder that focus and systems beat news and chatter. Eyes and gloves can fake you out, but the shoulders and hips show where things are going.
View original post on X here.
